Thursday, 10 December 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 4 numbers (5, 14, 24) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 July 2017 — its closest relative in 1,382 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 December 2020): 5 carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 56 — the 20th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 72. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.