Wednesday, 9 July 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (22, 42, 46) with the draw of 29 March 2014 — its closest relative in 471 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (5 July 2014): 22 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 173 — the 78th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 42–43. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

42 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 52% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.