Saturday, 30 November 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (22, 23, 45) with the draw of 23 June 2012 — its closest relative in 408 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 November 2013): 23 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 165 — the 70th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23, 45–46. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 38% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.