Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 5, 18, 24) with the draw of 30 March 2011 — its closest relative in 235 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 22% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 March 2012): 32 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 126 — the 26th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

43 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 39% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.