Saturday, 19 November 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (6, 19, 30, 46) with the draw of 16 July 2011 — its closest relative in 196 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 19% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 November 2011): 30, 39 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 149 — the 52th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

46 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 35% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.