Saturday, 14 January 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 18, 23) with the draw of 25 November 2022 — its closest relative in 2,033 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 January 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 89 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18, 18–19. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.