Friday, 6 January 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (9, 26, 29, 31) with the draw of 19 October 2021 — its closest relative in 2,025 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 28% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (5 January 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 131 — the 71th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

29 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.