Saturday, 20 August 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 10, 12) with the draw of 30 November 2021 — its closest relative in 1,886 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 August 2022): 1 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 75 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

31 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.