Wednesday, 27 January 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (23, 32, 36) with the draw of 12 August 2015 — its closest relative in 650 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 January 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 130 — the 83th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

32 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.