Friday, 16 October 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 15, 19, 22) with the draw of 15 March 2015 — its closest relative in 547 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 12% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 October 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 69 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 6–7. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 33 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.