Thursday, 25 December 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (30, 34, 35) with the draw of 26 September 2014 — its closest relative in 253 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 December 2014): 30, 32 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 158 — the 98th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 34–35. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

34 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.