Saturday, 27 October 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (12, 24, 25) with the draw of 28 April 2012 — its closest relative in 440 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 October 2012): 26, 52 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 147 — the 36th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 159. Side-by-side numbers: 24–25, 25–26. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 38% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.