Saturday, 17 March 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (5, 12, 18) with the draw of 14 March 2012 — its closest relative in 345 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 March 2012): 5, 12, 18 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 56 — the 0th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 159. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 3.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 17% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.