Saturday, 12 November 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (23, 24, 43, 47) with the draw of 22 January 2011 — its closest relative in 291 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 20% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 November 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 155 — the 45th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 159. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 54% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.