Monday, 29 August 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (12, 42, 43) with the draw of 25 October 2010 — its closest relative in 259 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 August 2011): 43 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 140 — the 29th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 159. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13, 42–43. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

42 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 55% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.