Wednesday, 2 March 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (7, 11, 22) with the draw of 24 January 2011 — its closest relative in 182 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 February 2011): 30 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 122 — the 15th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 159. Side-by-side numbers: 7–8. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

44 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 30% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.