Saturday, 28 September 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (23, 27, 32) with the draw of 17 March 2024 — its closest relative in 1,283 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 September 2024): 23 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 137 — the 78th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24, 31–32. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 30 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.