Wednesday, 12 July 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 7, 20) with the draw of 4 July 2023 — its closest relative in 839 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 July 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 89 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

39 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.