Saturday, 19 February 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (18, 19, 29) with the draw of 10 January 2011 — its closest relative in 414 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 February 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 125 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.