Tuesday, 1 February 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 20, 25) with the draw of 29 March 2010 — its closest relative in 396 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 January 2011): 22 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 106 — the 59th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.