Sunday, 23 January 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 16, 22) with the draw of 14 September 2010 — its closest relative in 387 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 January 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 115 — the 72th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.