Friday, 21 May 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (24, 28, 38) with the draw of 17 May 2010 — its closest relative in 140 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 76% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 May 2010): 16 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 121 — the 80th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 4 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.