Friday, 15 October 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (1, 28, 41) with the draw of 7 May 2021 — its closest relative in 282 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 October 2021): 41 carried over. Chance says 59% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 168 — the 80th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 141. Side-by-side numbers: 28–29. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 36% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.