Saturday, 17 October 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 21, 23) with the draw of 9 September 2015 — its closest relative in 1,385 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 October 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 108 — the 75th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22, 22–23. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.