Friday, 19 September 2014

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 18 February 2012. Chance gave a match this close a 0.3% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 September 2014): 10, 23 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 63 — the 9th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.