Monday, 24 July 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (2, 3, 19, 22, 28) with the draw of 26 November 2021 — its closest relative in 2,077 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 20% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 July 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 71% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 86 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 108. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 63% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.