Friday, 9 October 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (7, 29, 30, 31) with the draw of 23 September 2016 — its closest relative in 1,642 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 October 2020): 26, 32 carried over. Chance says 71% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 155 — the 98th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 108. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30, 30–31, 31–32. 63% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.