Monday, 7 August 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (1, 2, 19, 25) with the draw of 17 August 2016 — its closest relative in 1,147 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 August 2017): nothing carried over. Chance says 71% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 94 — the 27th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 108. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2, 23–24, 24–25. 63% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.