Wednesday, 12 August 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 6, 21, 23) with the draw of 22 April 2015 — its closest relative in 837 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 August 2015): 23 carried over. Chance says 71% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 87 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 108. Side-by-side numbers: 5–6. 63% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.