Wednesday, 6 July 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 9, 17, 25) with the draw of 15 October 2010 — its closest relative in 196 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 53% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 July 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 71% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 95 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 108. Side-by-side numbers: 16–17, 24–25. 63% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.