Saturday, 21 August 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 16, 19, 29) with the draw of 19 June 2021 — its closest relative in 4,133 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 August 2021): 4, 25 carried over. Chance says 60% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 93 — the 69th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 83. No two numbers side by side. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.