Sunday, 11 April 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 17, 27, 30) with the draw of 22 October 2020 — its closest relative in 4,001 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 93% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 April 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 60% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 103 — the 85th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 83. Side-by-side numbers: 26–27. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.