Wednesday, 24 February 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (14, 15, 26, 29) with the draw of 30 January 2019 — its closest relative in 3,955 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 93% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 February 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 60% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 86 — the 56th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 83. Side-by-side numbers: 14–15. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.