Monday, 11 January 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (1, 5, 6, 20) with the draw of 21 February 2018 — its closest relative in 3,911 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 93% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 January 2021): 6, 20 carried over. Chance says 60% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 34 — the 0th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 83. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2, 5–6. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

5 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.