Friday, 18 December 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 27, 28, 31) with the draw of 7 May 2017 — its closest relative in 3,888 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 93% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 December 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 60% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 122 — the 98th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 83. Side-by-side numbers: 27–28, 30–31. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.