Wednesday, 29 September 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 9, 28, 30) with the draw of 13 August 2010 — its closest relative in 176 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 11% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 September 2010): 4, 9 carried over. Chance says 60% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 73 — the 31th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 83. No two numbers side by side. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.