Saturday, 14 October 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 42, 43) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 20 November 2022 — its closest relative in 2,000 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 October 2023): 12 carried over. Chance says 36% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (25% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 128 — the 26th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 153. Side-by-side numbers: 42–43. 30% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

43 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 15% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.