Sunday, 3 September 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (13, 53, 59) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 12 August 2023 — its closest relative in 1,959 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 September 2023): 59 carried over. Chance says 36% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (25% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 206 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 153. Side-by-side numbers: 58–59. 30% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

13 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 35% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.