Saturday, 15 April 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (16, 30, 53) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 2 February 2023 — its closest relative in 1,818 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 April 2023): 30 carried over. Chance says 36% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (25% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 142 — the 39th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 153. No two numbers side by side. 30% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

53 had not appeared for 35 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.