Thursday, 10 August 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 5, 42) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 6 August 2015 — its closest relative in 237 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 48% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 August 2017): nothing carried over. Chance says 36% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (25% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 112 — the 14th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 153. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5. 30% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

5 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.