Saturday, 7 May 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 25, 46) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 9 April 2011 — its closest relative in 140 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 55% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 May 2011): 15 carried over. Chance says 45% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 116 — the 44th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 25–26. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

46 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.