Monday, 21 October 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 8, 10, 11) with the draw of 21 December 2014 — its closest relative in 3,459 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 64% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 October 2019): 10 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 50 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.