Saturday, 24 September 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (9, 11, 16) with the draw of 14 February 2016 — its closest relative in 2,342 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 September 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 63 — the 6th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.