Thursday, 18 August 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 13, 20, 23) with the draw of 10 May 2013 — its closest relative in 2,305 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 50% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 August 2016): 2, 13, 23 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 59 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.