Friday, 27 February 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (21, 23, 24, 30) with the draw of 24 November 2011 — its closest relative in 1,772 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 41% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 February 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 136 — the 93th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.