Saturday, 15 November 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (16, 31, 34, 35) with the draw of 2 July 2013 — its closest relative in 1,670 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 39% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 November 2014): 31, 35 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 126 — the 85th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 34–35. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.