Thursday, 3 February 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (13, 14, 22, 25) with the draw of 20 December 2019 — its closest relative in 1,102 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 87% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 February 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 148 — the 74th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 129. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 56% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 33% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.