Saturday, 29 August 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 16, 28, 30) with the draw of 11 May 2019 — its closest relative in 579 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 66% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 August 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 98 — the 13th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 129. Side-by-side numbers: 16–17. 56% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 55 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.