Saturday, 2 February 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (1, 4, 23) with the draw of 21 January 2019 — its closest relative in 41 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 70% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 February 2019): 4, 13 carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 80 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 129. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 56% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.