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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 15 October 2025

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 12
  2. 14
  3. 15
  4. 17
  5. 38
  6. 40
  7. 19

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,252 of 1,359 under them

← 2025-10-11All recent draws2025-10-18 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed12 14 15 17 38 40 + 191 Oct 2026, 00:10 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 October 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

51oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 51 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 44% of every possible ticket.

  • sum68th
  • odd21th
  • low79th
  • widest gap96th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread38th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 188 of each

12200times
14171times
15205times
17210times
38

Prize breakdown · 2025-10-15

  • Lines in play≈ 9.8Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2Mto 328k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 2.6

Where the money went

  • Match 5 + Bonus16%NZ$320.5K
  • Match 432%NZ$635.2K
  • Match 3 + Bonus32%NZ$620.7K
  • 2 other tiers20%NZ$390.6K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 2.6 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

179times
40192times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,251 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (12, 14, 38, 40) with the draw of 23 December 2023 — its closest relative in 1,251 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 October 2025): 40 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

136

The numbers add up to 136 — the 68th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 14–15. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 19% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus10≈ 15 by chanceNZ$32,045
  • Match 5479≈ 505 by chanceNZ$664
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,251≈ 1.3k by chanceNZ$58.00
  • Match 419,850≈ 20k by chanceNZ$32.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus28,215≈ 27k by chanceNZ$22.00
  • Match 3278,299≈ 278k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈9.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 5 — 479 winners, 5% fewer than the 505 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus10NZ$32,045
    Match 5479NZ$664
    Match 4 + Bonus1,251NZ$58.00
    Match 419,850NZ$32.00
    Match 3 + Bonus28,215NZ$22.00
    Match 3278,299NZ$0.00
    Totals328,104—